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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It commonly functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or just the most shocking shock.

But the current field is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent division champions declining and longtime strugglers rising in unison. In an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's facing several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current isn't a typical year!

The area where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still