A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
